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Edmonton saw an “electric” migration in 2023 spurred on by the city’s stable economy and affordable housing, which is attracting Canadians from outside of Alberta and newcomers, according to a new report by the Conference Board of Canada.

In its February report, Edmonton saw “record population growth” in 2023 which is largely attributed to 47,100 international newcomers — a 13,700 increase from 2022 which saw a high of 33,400. Interprovincial migration hit a record high of 18,700 people in 2023, compared to the 4,000-person average in 2002-2021.

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Consistent migration will raise Edmonton’s population by 4.4 per cent in 2024, after a record 4.5 per cent estimated advance in 2023 and a predicted 3.3 per cent population growth in 2025, the report said.

The province’s capital saw an estimated 5.2 per cent job increase in 2023 hitting a record high of approximately 851,000 — a 42,400 increase from 2022. Job increases were mainly led by the professional and technical sectors. The goods sector saw job losses with construction contracting the most.

The report predicts a 0.7 per cent employment increase for 2024 with 5,800 new jobs, putting the total employment for the year at 856,700 people. The goods sector is expected to lead the increase despite seeing job loss in 2023, rising by 5,000 jobs. The construction sector is anticipated to add nearly 3,700 putting construction employment at 90,600 workers — which is still less than its 2015 peak of 100,700 workers.

“We expect a stronger 2.7 per cent (23,300 positions) employment increase in 2025, led by job gains in construction, professional and technical services, and health-care services,” said the report.

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Unemployment rate to rise in 2024: report

Edmonton’s unemployment rate averaged 5.9 per cent in 2023. The report expects a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.3 per cent in 2024, citing that the labour force increase will be faster than employment. The rate will lower in 2025 to 6.1 per cent and stabilize in 2026-2028, the report said.

Despite a “levelling resale market” in 2023 which will limit output growth in finance, insurance and real estate, the housing market is set to improve later in 2024, which will foster an estimated growth of 3.8 per cent in the finance, insurance and real estate industry in 2025.

Demand for Edmonton homes is being fuelled by the “decent” economy and surging population — but faces higher interest rates nationally. While the demand is there, local pricing is unsteady, the report said.

“Against this backdrop, sales have flattened in recent months, while nonetheless exceeding year-earlier levels since July. The area’s resale market remains balanced, although listings are edging up. Rising listings combined with levelling sales could weaken the market’s stance, although we don’t expect a dip into buyers’ territory,” said the report.

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The city’s affordability, continuing employment growth and easing interest rates point to a strengthening real estate market in 2024, although the near term looks “rocky.”

While oil remains an important part of Alberta’s economy — oil prices have been trimmed by recession fears and “boosted by Saudi production cuts and war in Israel.” Oil prices in 2023 trimmed output growth in the primary and utility sectors due to volatility to an estimated four per cent in 2023 after annual gains of 7.5 per cent in 2021 and 2022.

“We expect economic cooling and further oil price volatility to limit primary and utilities output growth to 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 2.1 per cent in 2025. The outlook for 2026–28 features 3.1 per cent average annual growth,” said the report.

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