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Given the sharp divide of results surrounding the All-Star break, I have subdivided the just-completed 10-game segment into equal sets of 5 games.

The columns at right show the Oilers posted solid overall results from Games 41-50, with 56% of Grade A’s and 58% of 5 Alarm’s in all situations. Even as our methods vary sharply, these shares compare pretty well with Natural Stat Trick‘s measure of High Danger Chances, in which Edmonton recorded a 57.5% share in all situations over the same 10-game span. That was fourth best in the NHL, a hair behind their next opponents, the Dallas Stars.

By our counts the Oilers offensive numbers of such shots actually went up in the second set of games, but their defensive results rose significantly more. This was especially prominent on special teams, where Edmonton allowed just 8 Grade A Shots in the first 5 games, but 23 in the second 5. When it came to 5 Alarm Shots allowed, that number soared from just 1 (!) in the 5 games before the break, to 10 in the next 5. This squares (or at least rounds) with recorded outcomes of 0 powerplay goals allowed in earlier set of 5 games, but 7 in the last 5.

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In all situations, the Oilers allowed 46% more Grade A Shots (73 compared to 50) in the second group of 5 GP, and a whopping 85% more 5 Alarm Shots (37 vs. 20). Their increases of 18% and 16% respectively at the good end seem fairly pedestrian by comparison.

The inescapable conclusion: the recent games were more wide open, but this did not work to Edmonton’s advantage. All of wins and losses, goals for and against, and Grade A Shot share point arrows in that same direction.

Strongly suggesting that playing a more controlled, contained game produces better results for the Edmonton Oilers than pedal to the metal. Who knew?

Season to date by segment

Games 1 – 10: 2-7-1, .250 | 27 GF, 41 GA | 334 SF, 302 SA | .945 PDO
Games 11-20: 5-5-0, .500 | 39 GF, 33 GA | 328 SF, 272 SA | .998 PDO
Games 21-30: 7-3-0, .700 | 37 GF, 29 GA | 371 SF, 271 SA | .993 PDO
Games 31-40: 10-0-0, 1.000 | 37 GF, 16 GA | 340 SF, 278 SA | 1.051 PDO
Games 41-50: 7-3-0, .700 | 35 GF, 25 GA | 310 SF, 284 SA | 1.025 PDO

Oilers maintained their identity as an outshooting team, even as their advantage of +26 shots was their narrowest of the season to date. They also had an edge in shooting percentage of +2.5%. Positives in both departments will always produce a healthy goal share, and did again.

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Goalies

For the second straight segment, Stu Skinner played 8 of the 10 games. His results remained strong, though there have been signs of wear in the last week or so.

Calvin Pickard has been excellent in the backup role against carefully selected opponents, which in this segment included Chicago (shutout) and Anaheim. He last lost a game 2 months ago, having won his last 5 starts with 2.00, .922. He’ll face his next test, and a harsh one, in Dallas on Saturday afternoon.

Defence

Once again the same sextet played all 10 games. For some reason the coaching staff saw fit to switch up the pairings after a tight loss in Vegas that ended the win streak. There were certainly some warning signs before then that things weren’t quite so rosy as they appeared, but the changes sure didn’t seem to help.

Evan Bouchard continued to lead the blueline offensively, even as his numbers were in remission. He posted his lowest totals for any segment in all of goals, assists, points and shots. In the latter category he had just 6 shots in the first 7 games before firing 13 over the last 3, over which span he scored 4 of his 6 points.

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Brett Kulak led the corps with +7, built on a solid 5v5 goal differential of 9 for, 2 against. His (usual) partner Vincent Desharnais was the penalty minutes champ, collecting 8 of his 10 minutes for the segment in Game 50 alone.

Forwards

As usual Connor McDavid led the way, delivering an impressive 22 points. Put another way, he was directly involved in 61% of Edmonton’s overall production over the span, which is both good news and bad news in a single package.

Decent production across the Big 5, who each produced at least 4 goals and 8 points. But depth scoring remains a weak link. Warren Foegele had been doing some heavy lifting in that department, but all 5 of his points in the segment came in its first 3 games. Since the break, he’s been a shadow of the player who had earned his way into the top 6.

Then there’s the fourth line, for whom scoring has been almost nonexistent. The trio of Derek Ryan, Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown produced zero goals and just 2 assists among them over the 10 games. Nonetheless, all were plus players because none of the 3 were on the ice for a single goal against at 5v5! Which likely goes a long way towards explaining why the coaching staff keeps rolling them out night after night, while Sam Gagner (3 GA in just 5 games) waits his turn.

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Player grades

We close in our usual fashion by reviewing the set of 10 games through the lens of our own subjective ratings here at the Cult of Hockey. Regular readers will know that we grade on a scale of 1 to 10, the performance of every Edmonton Oilers player in every game the team plays, based on a combination of observation and interpretation of statistical output. Here are average grades for Games 41-50 along with our customary thumbnail comment summarizing each player’s contribution over that span.

Results by grader, fifth segment:

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